Wikileaks: "Rivolta pianificata con gli Usa"
e spunta il "manuale della protesta"
Dai dispacci svelati dal sito americano emerge un documento che rivelerebbe un ruolo
degli Stati Uniti dietro le proteste anti Mubarak, per arrivare alla deposizione del presidente
e un cambio di regime entro il 2011. E ai giornali arriva un vademecum del rivoluzionario,
con indicazioni su come muoversi in piazza. Con un consiglio:
portare una rosa, per mostrare intenzioni pacifiche

ROMA 29 gennaio 2010- Un documento diplomatico segreto pubblicato da Wikileaks rivela che gli Stati Uniti,
pur appoggiando in Egitto il governo  di Mubarak, da almeno tre anni sostengono segretamente alcuni dei dissidenti
che sarebbero dietro la rivolta di piazza di questi giorni. Secondo il dispaccio, la decisione farebbe parte di un piano
per favorire un "cambio di regime" in senso democratico al Cairo, nel 2011. Dal 2008,
gli Usa lavorerebbero quindi in segreto alla deposizione del presidente egiziano.

Gli Usa dietro la rivolta. Il documento proviene dall'ambasciata Usa al Cairo e risale al 30 dicembre 2008, ed è stato ripreso dal quotidiano inglese The Telegraph. In esso l'ambasciatrice, Margaret Scobey, dice che un "giovane dissidente" egiziano del movimento "6 aprile", il cui nome viene omesso, è stato aiutato dalla stessa ambasciata a partecipare a un incontro di dissidenti a Washington, il summit della "Alliance of Youth Movements". L'incontro, promosso dal Dipartimento di Stato, è avvenuto alla presenza di esperti e funzionari del governo americano. Al suo ritorno al Cairo - scrive il Telegraph - il dissidente egiziano ha rivelato ai diplomatici Usa che era stata formata un'alleanza fra gruppi di opposizione, con un piano per rovesciare nel 2011 il governo del presidente Mubarak. L'obiettivo del piano è installare un governo democratico in Egitto, prima delle elezioni presidenziali previste per il settembre di quest'anno.
Il dispaccio svelato da Wikileaks dice che "diverse forze di opposizione" egiziane avevano raggiunto un accordo per "appoggiare un piano non scritto per una transizione verso una democrazia parlamentare, con meno poteri al presidente della Repubblica, e più al primo ministro e al parlamento. Il tutto da portare a compimento prima delle elezioni presidenziali in programma nel 2011".  Il documento rivela anche che il piano è "così delicato da non poter essere messo per iscritto" e che l'identità del dissidente va tenuta nascosta per evitare rappresaglie al suo rientro in Egitto. L'ambasciatrice Scobey, infine, si chiede se il piano, che definisce "non realistico", possa funzionare.

Il manuale della rivolta. Uno scudo e uno spray di vernice come equipaggiamento, e una rosa per dimostrare le proprie intenzioni pacifiche. E poi, obbiettivi molto chiari: "Prendere il controllo di significativi edifici governativi. Convincere elementi della polizia e dell'esercito a stare dalla parte del popolo. Proteggere i nostri fratelli e le nostre sorelle nella fase della rivoluzione". Il manuale della rivoluzione in Egitto non prevede armi, ma determinazione e accortezza e "intelligenza". Un vero e proprio vademecum della rivolta, fatto arrivare da blogger egiziani nelle redazioni del Guardian e di Atlantic: un manuale  dettagliato di come comportarsi durante la protesta e quali fini perseguire. Non si indica come effettuare un colpo di Stato, ma come agire strategicamente secondo i dettami della "disobbedienza civile" per ottenere "la caduta di Hosni Mubarak e dei suoi ministri" e la formazione di "un nuovo governo non militare che abbia a cuore gli interessi degli egiziani".
Il piano d'azione della protesta, corredato da disegni esplicativi, prevede "il raduno di amici e vicini in strade lontane dal punto in cui sono concentrate le forze di sicurezza, e l'incoraggiamento ai passanti affinchè si uniscano al corteo (usando slogan positivi)". La divisa del rivoluzionario è così composta: giubbotto e cappuccio, vernice spray "da spruzzare sui poliziotti, se ci attaccano", scarpe con cui muoversi velocemente, scudo (che nel disegno assomiglia al coperchio di una pentola da cucina), occhiali protettivi, fazzoletto per proteggersi dai gas lacrimogeni. E poi, una rosa per mostrare le proprie "pacifiche" intenzioni. Il manuale indica, poi, come confrontarsi nel corpo a corpo con i poliziotti e con i blindati.


Viewing cable 08CAIRO2572, APRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S. VISIT AND REGIME
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Reference ID  Created  Released Classification  Origin
08CAIRO2572  2008-12-30 09:09 2011-01-28 00:12   SECRET  Embassy Cairo


VZCZCXRO6679
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #2572/01 3650909
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 300909Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1233
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002572
 
SIPDIS
 
FOR NEA/ELA, R, S/P AND H
NSC FOR PASCUAL AND KUTCHA-HELBLING
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2028
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EG
SUBJECT: APRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S. VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT
 
REF: A. CAIRO 2462
         A B. CAIRO 2454
         A C. CAIRO 2431
 
Classified By: ECPO A/Mincouns Catherine Hill-Herndon for reason 1.4 (d).
 
A1. (C) Summary and comment:  On December 23, April 6 activist XXXXXXXXXXXX  expressed satisfaction with his participation in
the December 3-5 "Alliance of Youth Movements Summit," and with his subsequent meetings with USG officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks.  He described how State Security (SSIS) detained him at the Cairo airport upon his return and confiscated his notes for his summit presentation calling for democratic change in Egypt, and his schedule for his Congressional meetings.  XXXXXXXXXXXX contended that the GOE will never undertake significant reform, and therefore, Egyptians need to replace the current regime with a parliamentary democracy.  He alleged that several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.  XXXXXXXXXXXX said that although SSIS recently released two April 6 activists, it also arrested three additional group members.
We have pressed the MFA for the release of these April 6 activists.  April 6's stated goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections is highly unrealistic, and is not supported by the mainstream opposition.  End summary and comment.
 
----------------------------
Satisfaction with the Summit
----------------------------
 
A2. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX expressed satisfaction with the December 3-5
"Alliance of Youth Movements Summit" in New York, noting that he was able to meet activists from other countries and outline his movement's goals for democratic change in Egypt.
He told us that the other activists at the summit were very supportive, and that some even offered to hold public demonstrations in support of Egyptian democracy in their countries, with XXXXXXXXXXXX as an invited guest.  XXXXXXXXXXXX said he discussed with the other activists how April 6 members could more effectively evade harassment and surveillance from SSIS with technical upgrades, such as consistently alternating
computer "simcards."  However, XXXXXXXXXXXX lamented to us that because most April 6 members do not own computers, this tactic would be impossible to implement.  XXXXXXXXXXXX was appreciative of the successful efforts by the Department and the summit organizers to protect his identity at the summit, and told us that his name was never mentioned publicly.
 
-------------------
A Cold Welcome Home
-------------------
 
A3. (S) XXXXXXXXXXXX told us that SSIS detained and searched him at the Cairo Airport on December 18 upon his return from the U.S.  According to XXXXXXXXXXXX, SSIS found and confiscated two documents in his luggage:  notes for his presentation at the summit that described April 6's demands for democratic transition in Egypt, and a schedule of his Capitol Hill meetings.  XXXXXXXXXXXX described how the SSIS officer told him that State Security is compiling a file on him, and that the officer's superiors instructed him to file a report on XXXXXXXXXXXX's most recent activities.
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------
Washington Meetings and April 6 Ideas for Regime Change
--------------------------------------------- ----------
 
A4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX described his Washington appointments as positive, saying that on the Hill he met with Rep. Edward Royce, a variety of House staff members, including from the offices of Rep. Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and Rep. Wolf (R-VA), and with two Senate staffers.  XXXXXXXXXXXX also noted that he met with several think tank members.  XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Rep. Wolf's office invited him to speak at a late January Congressional hearing on House Resolution 1303 regarding religious and political freedom in Egypt.  XXXXXXXXXXXX told us he is interested in attending, but conceded he is unsure whether he will have the funds to make the trip.  He indicated to us that he has not been focusing on his work as a "fixer" for journalists, due to his preoccupation with his U.S. trip.
 
A5. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX described how he tried to convince his Washington interlocutors that the USG should pressure the GOE to implement significant reforms by threatening to reveal
 
CAIRO 00002572  002 OF 002
 
information about GOE officials' alleged "illegal" off-shore bank accounts.  He hoped that the U.S. and the international community would freeze these bank accounts, like the accounts of Zimbabwean President Mugabe's confidantes.  XXXXXXXXXXXX said he wants to convince the USG that Mubarak is worse than Mugabe and that the GOE will never accept democratic reform.  XXXXXXXXXXXX asserted that Mubarak derives his legitimacy from U.S. support, and therefore charged the U.S. with "being responsible" for Mubarak's "crimes."  He accused NGOs working on political and economic reform of living in a "fantasy world," and not recognizing that Mubarak -- "the head of the snake" -- must step aside to enable democracy to take root.
 
A6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX claimed that several opposition forces -- including the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements -- have agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections (ref C).  According to XXXXXXXXXXX, the opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections.  XXXXXXXXXXXX asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be written down.  (Comment:  We have no information to corroborate that these parties and movements have agreed to the unrealistic plan XXXXXXXXXXXX has outlined.  Per ref C, XXXXXXXXXXXX previously told us that this plan was publicly available on the internet.  End comment.)
 
A7. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that the GOE has recently been cracking down on the April 6 movement by arresting its members.  XXXXXXXXXXXX noted that although SSIS had released XXXXXXXXXXXX and XXXXXXXXXXXX "in the past few days," it had arrested three other members.  (Note:  On December 14, we pressed the MFA for the release of XXXXXXXXXXXX and XXXXXXXXXXXX, and on December 28 we asked the MFA for the GOE to release the additional three activists. End note.)  XXXXXXXXXXXX conceded that April 6 has no feasible plans for future activities.  The group would like to call for another strike on April 6, 2009, but realizes this would be "impossible" due to SSIS interference, XXXXXXXXXXXX said.  He lamented that the GOE has driven the group's leadership underground, and that one of its leaders, Ahmed Maher, has been in hiding for the past week.
 
A8. (C) Comment:  XXXXXXXXXXXX offered no roadmap of concrete steps toward April 6's highly unrealistic goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections.  Most opposition parties and independent NGOs work toward achieving tangible, incremental reform within the current political context, even if they may be pessimistic about their chances of success.  XXXXXXXXXXXX's wholesale rejection of such an approach places him outside this mainstream of opposition politicians and activists.

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